Jump to content


Photo

Wildstar population: NCSoft 2nd Quarter 2014 Earnings Report

population NCsoft s sales

  • Please log in to reply
472 replies to this topic

#1 Maytree

Maytree
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:19 PM

NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 

Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 

 

My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  


  • ZombieTechnix and Mamatereza like this

#2 Safien

Safien
  • Guests

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:25 PM

This thread is sure to get entertaining a little later on.
  • Kytar and Hamsta like this

#3 phandaal

phandaal
  • Guests
  • LocationFarside

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:27 PM

You need to count CREDD sales in there as well.
  • Roda and ZombieTechnix like this

Magic Moo - Medic Heals - Victorious Failures - Now recruiting DS raiders!


#4 PariahDog

PariahDog
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:27 PM

Rentention rate doesn't matter too much when they have enough whales buying credd.



#5 KoalatheBarista

KoalatheBarista
  • Guests
  • LocationCONUS

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:31 PM

*
POPULAR

NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 

Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 

 

My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  

 

To use EvE as an example, they started out at 25K subs and grew to 500K over the years.  The next 6-12 months will tell if we're playing the next EvE or Tabula Rasa.


  • TerminusSojourner, ZiddersRoofurry, Grommet and 10 others like this

Served up delicicious Forum Espressos and Cappuccinos since Winter Beta 1!   B) 

...and turned off the Lights of the Bistro on October 3rd, 2014.   :o 


#6 Kestriel

Kestriel
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:41 PM

To use EvE as an example, they started out at 25K subs and grew to 500K over the years.  The next 6-12 months will tell if we're playing the next EvE or Tabula Rasa.

 

I am going to call it now as Tabula Rasa


  • TerminusSojourner, Anoteros, AelRhiana and 3 others like this

#7 starsam

starsam
  • Guests

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:41 PM

To use EvE as an example, they started out at 25K subs and grew to 500K over the years.  The next 6-12 months will tell if we're playing the next EvE or Tabula Rasa.

 

EvE is the only game of it's kind on the market.  Wildstar has no such advantage.


  • Mediant and Hamsta like this

#8 Siphaed

Siphaed
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:40 PM

 

Marketing expense also rose due to increased marketing campaigns for Wildstar

 

 

What marketing?!  Seriously, other than a few website advertisements such as full-page ads on MMORPG.com and others, I have yet to see any MAJOR marketing for Wildstar that has even attempted to get an inkling of interest from passer-bys.  

 

Where's the commercials?

Where's the "Free Trial" disc on Gamestop counters?

Where's the actor/actress stating that play this game as XX class doing some space cowboy stuff?

 

 

The assumption that spent more than $10,000 on advertisement max would be laughable.   They invest all the time, resources, and effort into a new IP in the West and bank on it's success, but totally fail on propertly selling the product!  Why is that?!


  • Grumpdogg, ZombieTechnix, Mamatereza and 3 others like this

#9 goff01030

goff01030
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 06:59 PM

Could be an advantage later because most players probably didn't know about wildstar. Advertise later when majority of the tedious content is gone.
  • Grumpdogg and PinkPanther like this

#10 VicVanMeter

VicVanMeter
  • Guests
  • LocationColumbus, OH

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:03 PM

NCSoft's second quarter earnings report is up on their website. It shows WIldstar's sales at about $27 million USD after converting from KRW (South Korea Won). If you assume an average box price of $60, with the folks paying for the deluxe canceled out by the folks who got a 20% discount on the box, that's a little over 455 k subs at launch, if I did my math right. (If I didn't, I know some kind soul will correct me.) 

Anyone want to speculate on what the retention rate of those buyers has been? One in two, one in five, one in ten still playing? We finally have some hard population numbers -- do they support the idea that WIldstar is fine pop-wise, or in trouble? 

 

My take: if I did the math right, these numbers aren't too good. Some folks have been suggesting Wildstar is meant to be a "niche hardcore" game like EVE Online, but EVE has 500k subs currently and has been holding steady at that level for a long time. Wildstar started with not quite that many, and has of course lost a lot of early subbers, as MMOs typically do right after launch.  So do we think there are currently around 230 k players? (One in two still subbed?) 100k? (One in five still subbed?) or 45k (One in ten still subbed?)  And what would those various numbers mean for the future of the game?  

 

Actually, EVE has been growing steadily to 500k players.  To their credit.  They weren't always there.

 

The game probably has about a 50% retention rate, maybe higher or lower by 5%, but half is normal.  If your math comes correct, that puts subs at 225k?  Better than I thought they were doing (I thought they'd settle in somewhere between 100-200k at first and grow.

 

We'll see how things shake out.  I'm curious to know how CREDD factors in, though.


  • SteelFire likes this

Let not the wind, example find, to do me more harm than it purposeth :
Since thou and I sigh one another's breath,
Whoe'er sighs most is cruellest, and hastes the other's death.  
-John Donne


#11 Geaux

Geaux
  • Guests

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:10 PM

 and now that  the doom says have  hard evidence to call wildstar a  flop ( and lets be clear just selling  at the rate of  an "AAA release"   would merit  close to duoble those revenue values) the forums  are going to get really really fun for the  next 3  months

 

 

/cast flameward

/cast doomGuard

/cast barrier

/cast troll ward


  • Safien likes this

 In Wildstar don't attribute anything to malice  that can be accounted for  by incompetence.

Carbine studios, a textbook case of blown potental

 Have a dumb stalker question? Ask here


#12 Maytree

Maytree
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:14 PM

 

 

The game probably has about a 50% retention rate, maybe higher or lower by 5%, but half is normal.  If your math comes correct, that puts subs at 225k?  Better than I thought they were doing (I thought they'd settle in somewhere between 100-200k at first and grow.

 

Hm, I feel that's optimistic. I suspect it's more like a one in four or even one in five retention rate, so 25% to 20%. It really doesn't look to me like Wildstar still has half the players it had at launch.


  • Jet2K14 likes this

#13 Nirviii

Nirviii
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:16 PM

You add to the mix. 190 guilds that complete 1/6 GA for both NA/EU.

Assume average there are 30 rosters each guild. meaning only around 5900 ppl.

Times it with 2x to get 0/6 GA guilds, so around 11800 ppl who could raid now? Those are professional/skilled players that dedicate to the game so they prolly surely subs.

 

Beside those who reach end game, there are some ppl doing housing, some ppl still dungeoning, some ppl still leveling, but from the look of the Hub city in Widow, it is quite deserted, and i dont think there are much outside the raiding guilds.

 

Some CREED in some server are dirt cheap, so i'm not sure how to calculate the actual subscription from these info either. Some people can play with CREED all months long without the need of playing subs because they played the market right.

 

Carbine should have tell the press by now if the subscription they get is great. By the fact that they silenced about this means there might be population/subscription drops.



#14 RhodreeMahr

RhodreeMahr
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:20 PM

 and now that  the doom says have  hard evidence to call wildstar a  flop ( and lets be clear just selling  at the rate of  an "AAA release"   would merit  close to duoble those revenue values) the forums  are going to get really really fun for the  next 3  months

 

 

/cast flameward

/cast doomGuard

/cast barrier

/cast troll ward

 

 

Eh, there's a moral narrative to the rant and rave crowd. They will claim the game is a flop because the game company didn't listen to whatever their concern was. Not sure I see how you can argue that if it only sold half a million in the first place. There's not many subs to lose. Wasn't there some WoW video guy who polled his viewers on Wildstar and like 4 in 7 had never heard of the game?



#15 Geaux

Geaux
  • Guests

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:27 PM

 just for the record eve has an abysmal attachment rates, they just have really managed to attach people to spending  more money per honest human customer.  But  CCP also how to get people to try the game and convert to members


 In Wildstar don't attribute anything to malice  that can be accounted for  by incompetence.

Carbine studios, a textbook case of blown potental

 Have a dumb stalker question? Ask here


#16 Balf

Balf
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:31 PM


 


 

/cast flameward

/cast doomGuard

/cast barrier

/cast troll ward

 

Guh!

Ack!

*clink*

You Miss! troll ward resisted by 100%


  • ZombieTechnix and Tree Fiddy like this

#17 ZombieTechnix

ZombieTechnix
  • Guests
  • LocationIn a Tardis, traveling to when gaming was still fun.

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:32 PM

I am going to call it now as Tabula Rasa

 

Even though I'd have to agree, I can't help but think, "poor Tabula Rasa"... still think I'm one of a small handful that actually loved the hell out of that game, lol. :P

 

 


 

Guh!

Ack!

*clink*

You Miss! troll ward resisted by 100%

 

 

WAIT!!! ...don't forget to roll the super-die... if you get a 4 you get a successful counter-attack! :D

dice.jpg

 

 

What marketing?!  Seriously, other than a few website advertisements such as full-page ads on MMORPG.com and others, I have yet to see any MAJOR marketing for Wildstar that has even attempted to get an inkling of interest from passer-bys.  

 

Where's the commercials?

Where's the "Free Trial" disc on Gamestop counters?

Where's the actor/actress stating that play this game as XX class doing some space cowboy stuff?

 

 

The assumption that spent more than $10,000 on advertisement max would be laughable.   They invest all the time, resources, and effort into a new IP in the West and bank on it's success, but totally fail on propertly selling the product!  Why is that?!

 

I know right!?  It's one of those things that's been kind of boggling me... several game sites including IGN, Gamespot, etc... all came out raving over Wildstar, giving ratings of anywhere from 8 to 10, etc.  Saying it was so awesome, the best MMO ever, how they've missed such content, etc, etc... then, right after their reviews... they don't even play the game or follow it anymore?  Only time I ever see them post anything about it is to hype the next content-drop typically.  Seems kind of fishy that the review can say how mind-blowing awesome it is, yet no follow-through whatsoever... even games that have been hyped and then flopped in the past had some follow-through, mention, coverage, etc. :huh:


  • ItsLogFromBlammo, Balf, Kestriel and 3 others like this

★☆★☆★ 32 Year \/ Gaming-Veteran ★☆★☆★  [Confucius says]: ボウタイされている根本的な  and ~  不要惊慌实际男子爱耶稣

If you can read this, yer' too darn close! F2P made my day!: Everything I ever stated, called, or predicted about this game all along has come to fruition & was 200% completely/totally accurate. #GamingExpFTW #32YrGamer #HardcoreNoMore #CalledIt I don't play well with others; just look at the flowers. 

{ FX-6300 3.5ghz [OC-able to 4+ghz] 6-Core (Tower), 8gb Ram, AMD Radeon HD R7 250 /w 2gb vRam, Win 8.1 64-Bit & Ubuntu 14.04 Dual-Boot/VirtualBox, 46" Samsung ultra-conversion 3D HDTV }


#18 Geaux

Geaux
  • Guests

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:36 PM

 


 

Guh!

Ack!

*clink*

You Miss! troll ward resisted by 100%

 

 how you you resist a  buff on myself

 

 

/cast dimensional  ejection.

bye bye

 

#SpellPenetrationGotIt


 In Wildstar don't attribute anything to malice  that can be accounted for  by incompetence.

Carbine studios, a textbook case of blown potental

 Have a dumb stalker question? Ask here


#19 Tankanidis

Tankanidis
  • Members
  • LocationNot in Nexus anymore Toto.

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:37 PM

Even though I'd have to agree, I can't help but think, "poor Tabula Rasa"... still think I'm one of a small handful that actually loved the hell out of that game, lol.

 

 

WAIT!!! ...don't forget to roll the super-die... if you get a 4 you get a successful counter-attack! :D

dice.jpg

 

I really enjoyed Tabula Rasa for the short time it was around too. (it basically taught Rift how to Rift and the combat was fun).


  • ItsLogFromBlammo, ZombieTechnix and Kestriel like this

#20 Kestriel

Kestriel
  • Members

Posted 13 August 2014 - 07:47 PM

I really enjoyed Tabula Rasa for the short time it was around too. (it basically taught Rift how to Rift and the combat was fun).

 

Tabula Rasa was actually a really good game that I enjoyed playing a lot.

 

today its too bad it wasnt still around.


  • ZombieTechnix and Tankanidis like this



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: population, NCsoft s, sales